PPAs and electricity prices

Price levels in 2026

Romania's day-ahead market, operated by OPCOM, started 2026 at an average of EUR 150.51/MWh in January and eased to about EUR 95.55/MWh in April before rising to EUR 109.56/MWh in May and EUR 122.99/MWh in June as trading volumes declined. The summer of 2026 added a system-specific driver: Cernavodă's nuclear output was interrupted for more than a month while the Danube fell to its lowest level since 1996, tightening hydro and cooling-water constraints at once. The Unit 1 refurbishment, backed by an EUR 800 million EIB loan, will remove that unit from the system between 2027 and 2030.

Why negative hours appear

With more than 7 GW of solar and 3.9 GW of it on prosumer rooftops, midday supply on sunny weekends exceeds demand, and day-ahead prices in some hours clear below zero. Merchant solar revenue is most exposed at exactly those hours; batteries, flexible demand and export capacity absorb the surplus. This is why storage economics and PPA structures that pay for delivered profile, not just annual volume, now dominate contract negotiations.

Corporate PPAs, CBAM and guarantees of origin

Corporate buyers in Romania and across the EU are shifting from annual matching to hourly evidence of renewable supply, partly because CBAM reporting has turned renewable procurement into an hourly audit. Guarantees of origin remain the certificate of record; our July 2026 analysis covers Romania's alignment with the European AIB hub and what it means for cross-border PPAs. Buyers weighing a three-year procurement strategy face a choice between fixed-price PPAs, CfD-backed supply through suppliers and merchant exposure.

What it means for sellers and buyers

Sellers should price the profile risk explicitly and consider hybrid structures that add storage. Buyers should ask for hourly delivery data and decide early whether guarantees of origin alone meet their reporting obligations. Both sides should read the CfD scheme as the market's price anchor for new-build solar in the EUR 35 to 45/MWh range and for wind in the EUR 60 to 80/MWh range.

What this means for investors

• Day-ahead averages moved between roughly EUR 95 and 150/MWh in the first half of 2026; underwrite merchant revenue on hourly shapes, not annual averages.
• Negative midday hours are structural; storage or flexible offtake protects solar revenue.
• Corporate PPAs are shifting to hourly matching; contract terms should anticipate CBAM reporting.
• The CfD strike prices are the reference for what new-build renewable power costs in Romania.

Momentum Energy's view

We expect Romanian power prices to remain volatile and shape-dependent through the Cernavodă refurbishment years, which strengthens the case for storage and for PPAs that pay for profile. Investors who treat the annual average price as their revenue assumption will misprice both risk and opportunity.

The view above is Momentum Energy's opinion and is separated from the sourced facts in the tables. It is not investment advice.